What does this mean?
The market regime analyses trend, momentum and market breadth on a monthly basis and classifies the current environment into one of four phases. It is not a forecast and not a trading signal, just a classification of where we stand. Concrete buy and sell signals are generated by the signal system per asset.
Risk-Off
High uncertainty. Protecting capital is the priority.
Defensive
Caution advised. Defensive assets and real assets preferred.
Risk-On
Broad market carries. Normal exposure possible.
Aggressive
Strong momentum. Growth and small caps lead.
Sector Rotation
Which asset classes are performing better or worse than the broad US market? Relative strength shows where money is flowing. All values in USD. Results in CHF may differ due to exchange rates.
History
The chart shows the regime score over the last 36 months. The higher the value, the more offensive the market environment. Below 25, caution dominates (Risk-Off); above 75, strong momentum prevails (Aggressive). The coloured lines correspond to the four phases.